Water, Food, and Energy Security: An Elusive Search for Balance in Central Asia

The development and use of water resources in the Amu Darya Basin remain under debate in the face of increasing population and associated scarcities in water, food, and energy. The upstream riparian, the mountain nation of Tajikistan, wishes to develop its hydropower potential. Three downstream states wish to sustain or increase their economic benefits from water used for irrigation. Growing tensions among the riparian countries on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of Amu Darya, have halted development of Tajikistan's proposed Rogun Dam. This paper examines the potential for mutually beneficial water development and allocation of water resources to sustain demands for water, food, and energy. Using long-term data on the Basin's energy potential, water supplies, irrigated land, and crop water demands, this paper analyzes total economic welfare for a future 20-year time horizon. Two water supply scenarios for each of two policy choices are examined. Results show that a constrained economic optimization operation of the Dam has the potential to increase farm income for each riparian country, while producing considerable benefits in hydropower for Tajikistan. Political negotiation among the riparian states and much better data will be needed to discover and implement potential gains indicated by this study.