期刊
WATER INTERNATIONAL
卷 38, 期 5, 页码 620-631出版社
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2013.827889
关键词
drought; Pakistan; Standardized Precipitation Index; principal component analysis; variability
资金
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) (under the project Impacts of Climate Extremes on Future Water and Food Security in South Asia and East Africa)
- CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) through the Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP)
We investigated the spatiotemporal variability of drought incidence in Pakistan during 1960-2007 by calculating Standardized Precipitation Index fields for 3-, 6- and 12-month scales using gridded precipitation data. Principal component analysis revealed that droughts are wide-spread and often occur simultaneously over large areas. Furthermore, spectral analysis identified a 16-year drought recurrence period. Three such drought-intensive periods were identified: the late 1960s to early 1970s; the middle 1980s; and the late 1990s to early 2000s. Hence, drought patterns need to be integrated into long-term water planning as well as emergency preparedness.
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