Climate changes and suitability for the ticks Amblyomma hebraeum and Amblyomma variegatum (Ixodidae) in Zimbabwe (1974-1999)

The spread of Amblyomma hebraeum has been reported in Zimbabwe. At the same time there was little or no spread in the distribution of Amblyomma variegatum. This paper examines the climatic cycles and their trends in the period 1974-1999 with a view to explaining the abiotic causes of this spread, and of forecasting the likely tendency in climate suitability for both tick species. An annual data-set of rainfall and air temperature was used as a source for climate, together with a habitat-modeling algorithm to estimate climate suitability for both ticks. Long-term suitable habitat for A. hebraeum exists mainly in the south and southeast of the country. Areas of adequate habitat for A. variegatum exist across the country, between approximately 17 degrees S and 18.5 degrees S, and are most suitable in regions of the northwest. The climate niches of the two species differ, and account for their almost allopatric distributions, as observed in the duration and intensity of the dry period and in total annual rainfall. Cyclic changes in both temperature and rainfall drive the periodic modifications in the distributions of the ticks. More intense periods of drought in the highveld, drive the expansion of A. hebraeum in this region. Temperature does not have any effect on the tendency in this area. Areas in south and southeast show a trend towards an increase in climatic suitability because of an increase in temperature. Zones in which habitat suitability is increasing for A. variegatum are restricted to the northwestern parts of the country, because warmer temperatures and a slight decrease in the intensity of the dry season. The progressive increase in temperatures seems to be forcing the dispersion of A. variegatum towards areas outside of zones that have a prolonged dry period. On the other hand A. hebraeum is compelled to spread northwards, following areas with adequate rainfall patterns, but halted by temperature limits and perhaps competition with A. variegatum. Without adequate control measures, invasive waves of A. hebraeum may occur over a background swell of northward expansion. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.