期刊
VALUE IN HEALTH
卷 13, 期 8, 页码 1056-1060出版社
WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC
DOI: 10.1111/j.1524-4733.2010.00775.x
关键词
decision tree; discrete event simulation; economic evaluation; Markov; modeling
Objectives: To argue that discrete event simulation should be preferred to cohort Markov models for economic evaluations in health care. Methods: The basis for the modeling techniques is reviewed. For many health-care decisions, existing data are insufficient to fully inform them, necessitating the use of modeling to estimate the consequences that are relevant to decision-makers. These models must reflect what is known about the problem at a level of detail sufficient to inform the questions. Oversimplification will result in estimates that are not only inaccurate, but potentially misleading. Results: Markov cohort models, though currently popular, have so many limitations and inherent assumptions that they are inadequate to inform most health-care decisions. An event-based individual simulation offers an alternative much better suited to the problem. A properly designed discrete event simulation provides more accurate, relevant estimates without being computationally prohibitive. It does require more data and may be a challenge to convey transparently, but these are necessary trade-offs to provide meaningful and valid results. Conclusion: In our opinion, discrete event simulation should be the preferred technique for health economic evaluations today.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据