Impacts of small scale rainfall variability in urban areas: a case study with 1D and 1D/2D hydrological models in a multifractal framework

In this paper the sensitivity to small scale unmeasured rainfall variability (i.e. at scales smaller than 1km by 1km by 5min in time, which are usually available with C-band radars) of a 1D/2D model with a 10m resolution and a semi-distributed 1D model of the same 1.47km(2) urban area is analyzed. The 1D/2D model is the open source numerical platform Multi-Hydro, which couples (open source) distributed models of involved hydrological/hydraulic processes. The methodology implemented to evaluate the uncertainties consists of generating an ensemble of realistic rainfall fields downscaled to a resolution of 12.3m in space and 18.75s in time with the help of a stochastic universal multifractal model. The corresponding ensemble of hydrographs is then simulated. It appears that the uncertainty is significant and that Multi-Hydro unveils much more uncertainty than the simpler 1D model. This points out a need to develop high resolution distributed modelling in urban areas.