Increased Convergence Rates in Multiagent Transport Simulations with Pseudosimulation

A multimodeling approach to large-scale, activity-based, multiagent simulation of travel demand is introduced. MATSIM is a full activity-based transport simulation. Its greatest current performance limitation is the network loading simulation, currently a queue simulation (QSim). QSim is iteratively executed for the entire agent population for evaluating the effects of random mutations on the activity plans of a fraction of the population. After each QSim, poorly performing plans are discarded, good plans are kept, and the agents slowly learn what works best for their individual activity needs. In the application presented, the system periodically replaces QSim for a number of iterations with a simplified pseudosimulation that runs approximately two orders of magnitude faster. The pseudosimulation uses travel time information from the preceding QSim iteration to estimate how well an agent day plan might perform. Repeated iterations of the pseudosimulation produce better-performing plans in a short time. These plans are passed to the QSim for updating of network travel time information, and the process repeats. The technique is tested in a scenario for Zurich, Switzerland, and incorporates mode choice, road pricing, secondary activity location choice, activity timing adjustment, and dynamic routing. The technique dramatically improves convergence rates for such complex, large-scale simulations and fully exploits modern multicore computer architectures.