Competitiveness of High-Speed Rail Analysis for Corridor Between Lisbon, Portugal, and Madrid, Spain, Based on Discrete Choice Models

This research study had two main objectives: (a) to examine the potential of high-speed rail (HSR) to compete against other transport modes currently operating between Lisbon, Portugal, and Madrid, Spain, and (b) to analyze the capacity of intermodal solutions that incorporate HSR to compete with other transport modes when included in air transport systems. Thus, more than an evaluation of the competition capacity of HSR in point-to-point trips, this study assessed how attractive intermodal solutions were in trips to medium- and long-haul destinations. The analysis was based on discrete choice models calibrated with data collected through a web stated-preference survey. Furthermore, scenarios were used to explore the results obtained by the models. The results obtained suggest that high-speed trains will not only be able to compete with other modes in a point-to-point trip from Lisbon to Madrid but will also be part of an intermodal chain to destinations beyond. Within the business segment, the medium-haul market was found to set the limit of the attractiveness of intermodal transport solutions. Within the leisure segment, however, this limit might be extended to the long-haul market, depending on the pricing strategy. These conclusions were supported by the attractiveness of each transport mode.