期刊
TRANSPORTATION
卷 41, 期 3, 页码 567-587出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11116-013-9503-4
关键词
Transport infrastructure; Economic growth; Panel threshold regression; Highway network; Non-monotonic relationship
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41201102, 71373153]
- Leading Academic Discipline Program
- 211 Project for Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (the 4th phase)
- Shu Guang project grant from Shanghai Municipal Education Commission
- Shanghai Education Development Foundation
Using China's province-level panel data from 1987 to 2010, this study explores the optimal level of transport infrastructure accumulation maximizing the growth rate. We investigate under what circumstances can additional transportation infrastructure capacity positively affect economic growth, based on panel threshold regression models. Our empirical findings suggest that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the stock of transport infrastructure and the long-run growth rate. The magnitude of transport-led economic growth effect significantly depends on the level of the existing transport network. The empirical results identify two endogenous cut-off points of efficiency of transport-led economic growth effect. When the highway network density is lower than 0.17 km/km(2), an insignificant positive relationship between highway infrastructure accumulation and economic growth was found. When the highway density is estimated between 0.17 and 0.38 km/km(2) or higher than 0.38 km/km(2), expanding the highway network has a significant positive effect on economic growth, but the magnitude of the impact is weaker in the latter, with the estimated coefficients equal to 0.23 and 0.09 respectively. Although China still enjoys a positive economic growth effect led by building more large-scale highway infrastructure, the magnitude of the effects of most provinces in China has already passed the saturation point and continuously expanding the highway network is not very productive.
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