期刊
THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY
卷 77, 期 1, 页码 71-75出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2009.11.003
关键词
Disease spread; Transmission networks; Clustering coefficient; Assortativity; Social networks
资金
- University College Postgraduate Research Scholarship
- ARC Centre for Complex Systems [CEO0348249]
Epidemic models have successfully included many aspects of the complex contact structure apparent in real-world populations. However, it is difficult to accommodate variations in the number of contacts, clustering coefficient and assortativity. Investigations of the relationship between these properties and epidemic behaviour have led to inconsistent conclusions and have not accounted for their interrelationship. In this study, simulation is used to estimate the impact of social network structure on the probability of an SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic occurring and, if it does, the final size. Increases in assortativity and clustering coefficient are associated with smaller epidemics and the impact is cumulative. Derived values of the basic reproduction ratio (R-0) over networks with the highest property values are more than 20% lower than those derived from simulations with zero values of these network properties. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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