Modeling the role of wind and warming on Microcystis aeruginosa blooms in shallow lakes with different trophic status

This study focuses on the role of wind exposure and storm events, in interaction with trophic status and temperature, on the competition between two species: Microcystis aeruginosa and a typical green alga. It is based on a water column model containing ecological and fluid mechanic features including mixing and shear stress at the bottom. This model addresses for the first time the impact of storm events (inducing sediment and nutrient resuspension) on algal dynamics. Simulations with realistic environmental forcings were performed with different sets of wind, temperature, and trophic conditions. With normal temperatures, conditions for dominance and bloom formation of M. aeruginosa in summer are restricted to hypertrophic waters with low wind exposure. Higher wind exposure (above 2 m s(-1)) impairs the formation blooms even in favorable trophic conditions and enhances the dominance of green algae. Hotter temperatures allow the dominance of M. aeruginosa for lower phosphorus conditions and higher wind exposure and lead to the exclusion of green algae for high phosphorus content and low wind exposure. Nevertheless, high wind exposure (above 3 m s(-1)) still prevents dense bloom formation and allows the coexistence of both species. Storm events bring two counterbalancing features: sediment and nutrient resuspension. The first leads to a decrease of phytoplankton density in response to high turbidity, and the second leads to an increase and better maintenance of M. aeruginosa blooms due to high phosphorus concentration released in the water. This result depends on the timing of the event and on general wind exposure as phosphorus release only benefits M. aeruginosa if exposure to wind is low.