期刊
THEORETICAL ECOLOGY
卷 4, 期 2, 页码 283-288出版社
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
DOI: 10.1007/s12080-011-0123-3
关键词
Influenza; Pandemic; 1918; London, England; Time series; Mathematical modelling; POMP
类别
资金
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research
- Public Health Agency of Canada
Influenza pandemics through history have shown very different patterns of incidence, morbidity and mortality. In particular, pandemics in different times and places have shown anywhere from one to three waves of incidence. Understanding the factors that underlie variability in temporal patterns, as well as patterns of morbidity and mortality, is important for public health planning. We use a likelihood-based approach to explore different potential explanations for the three waves of incidence and mortality seen in the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, England. Our analysis suggests that temporal variation in transmission rate provides the best proximate explanation and that the variation in transmission required to generate these three epidemic waves is within biologically plausible values.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据