Changes in extreme daily winter and summer temperatures in Belgrade

In this study, generalised extreme value (GEV) and generalised Pareto distributions (GPD) were fitted to absolute minimum winter (AMINW) and maximum summer (AMAXS) temperatures, and the daily minimum winter (DMINW) and maximum summer (DMAXS) temperatures in Belgrade, respectively. It was found that both distributions are reasonable. Inclusion of the trend and the North Atlantic Osallation index as covariates in the location parameter when applying the GEV fit to the AMINW temperatures resulted in a significant improvement over the model without covariates. The estimated return levels for 100-year and 10-year return periods using the GEV and GPD were obtained for both seasons.