Ensemble simulations of the urban effect on a summer rainfall event in the Great Beijing Metropolitan Area

The Great Beijing Metropolitan Area (GBMA), located in North China, is one of the most rapidly developing regions in the world. In this study, ensemble simulations are conducted to investigate the urban effects on a summertime heavy rainfall event in the GBMA. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that couples with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is used for the ensemble simulation. Results show that the ensemble simulation with a realistic land-use representation of urban areas (i.e. control run) can well reproduce the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the rainfall event. The simulated total precipitation agrees well with observation. Compared with the sensitivity ensemble simulation, in which the urban area is replaced by cropland, the control run generates more precipitation over the southwest of Beijing, while less rainfall is found in the area to the northeast of Beijing. This result suggests that the underlying urban surface and urban canopy physics in the surface layer have remarkable impacts on precipitation. The stronger upward motion along with larger convergence and more moisture transportation caused by the urban dynamic and thermodynamic effects directly contribute to the differences in rainfall distribution between the control run and the sensitivity run. In addition, the urban effects are found to slow the cold front movement due to the intense warm air over the urban area, leading to a delayed occurrence of the peak rainfall. However, the slow-moving cold front over the urban area enhances the maximum precipitation intensity. The evolution of the rainfall pattern during the intensification period of the precipitation event is dependent on the movement of the cold front in both the control and sensitivity experiments, indicating that urban effects tend to modify the precipitation distribution and influence the temporal variation of the rainfall process. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.