期刊
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
卷 8, 期 3, 页码 327-344出版社
SPRINGER JAPAN KK
DOI: 10.1007/s11625-013-0218-4
关键词
Volcanic island; Atoll; Reef island; Climate change; Sea-level rise; Disaster risk reduction
资金
- C-Change International Community-University Research Alliance (ICURA)
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council
- International Development Research Centre
- Canadian International Development Agency
- Japan International Cooperation Agency
- South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC)
- Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) (Natural Resources Canada)
Small tropical islands are widely recognized as having high exposure and vulnerability to climate change and other natural hazards. Ocean warming and acidification, changing storm patterns and intensity, and accelerated sea-level rise pose challenges that compound the intrinsic vulnerability of small, remote, island communities. Sustainable development requires robust guidance on the risks associated with natural hazards and climate change, including the potential for island coasts and reefs to keep pace with rising sea levels. Here we review these issues with special attention to their implications for climate-change vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in various island settings. We present new projections for 2010-2100 local sea-level rise (SLR) at 18 island sites, incorporating crustal motion and gravitational fingerprinting, for a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global projections and a semi-empirical model. Projected 90-year SLR for the upper limit A1FI scenario with enhanced glacier drawdown ranges from 0.56 to 1.01 m for islands with a measured range of vertical motion from -0.29 to +0.10 m. We classify tropical small islands into four broad groups comprising continental fragments, volcanic islands, near-atolls and atolls, and high carbonate islands including raised atolls. Because exposure to coastal forcing and hazards varies with island form, this provides a framework for consideration of vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, appropriate measures to adjust for climate change and to mitigate disaster risk depend on a place-based understanding of island landscapes and of processes operating in the coastal biophysical system of individual islands.
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