Are there preoperative factors related to a soft pancreas and are they predictive of pancreatic fistulas after pancreatic resection?

Purpose Soft pancreatic parenchyma is the most widely recognized risk factor for pancreatic fistula. We conducted this study to clarify if there are preoperative factors related to a soft pancreatic remnant and to establish if they are useful for predicting pancreatic fistula. Methods This was a retrospective study of patients who underwent pancreatic resections at the Department of Surgical Sciences of the S. Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy. The factors considered were sex, age, comorbidities, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, characteristics of the pancreatic remnant, and preoperative diagnosis. Results Data from 208 patients were recorded. The risk factors predictive of a soft pancreatic remnant were BMI >24 kg/m(2) (P = 0.011), a Wirsung duct size = 3 mm (P < 0.001), and coexisting periampullary diseases (P < 0.001). Using these factors, we developed a risk score model that was validated by considering the pancreatic fistula rate. The overall and clinically relevant pancreatic fistula rate increased with increasing score values (P = 0.002 and P = 0.028, respectively). Using a score cut-off value of six points, patients with a score >= 6 were considered to be at high risk. Conclusions Body mass index >24 kg/m(2), a Wirsung duct size <3 mm, and preoperative diagnosis represented the preoperative factors related to a soft pancreas. These factors proved useful in the building of a risk score model to predict the incidence of pancreatic fistula.