Predictive model of distribution of Atta robusta Borgmeier 1939 (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): subsidies for conservation of a Brazilian leaf-cutting ant endangered species

The aim of this work was to create a predictive model of the potential geographical distribution of the leaf-cutting ant Atta robusta Borgmeier 1939 (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) using ecological niche modeling. We used previous collection records available in the literature together with our database. This is the first study in Brazil using ecological niche modeling as a tool for predicting ant species distribution. Besides the already known distribution, the model generated results showing a medium to low probability of occurrence in the coastal regions of Parana and Sao Paulo states, and a very high probability of occurrence in southern Bahia State, in environments popularly known as mucunungas. These environments are characterized by a lower density of trees and the dominance of herbaceous-shrub vegetation. Moreover, we discuss how geographic barriers and anthropogenic pressure in restinga environments may be the determining factors in the current distribution of this species. According to the predictive model used in this study, there is strong evidence that this species occurs only in these states and deserves special attention from government conservation agencies in the restingas where it is located.