期刊
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
卷 29, 期 4, 页码 1179-1189出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-014-0916-1
关键词
Return period; Nonstationary frequency analysis; Multivariate frequency analysis; Copulas; Risk of failure; Design values; Design life
类别
资金
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [EP/K013513/1]
- Willis Research Network
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/K013513/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- EPSRC [EP/K013513/1] Funding Source: UKRI
The concept of return period in stationary univariate frequency analysis is prone to misconceptions and misuses that are well known but still widespread. In this study we highlight how nonstationary and multivariate extensions of such a concept are affected by additional misconceptions, thus easily resulting in further ill-posed procedures and misleading conclusions. We also show that the concepts of probability of exceedance and risk of failure over a given design life period provide more coherent, general and well devised tools for risk assessment and communication.
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