期刊
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
卷 33, 期 5, 页码 881-899出版社
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1002/sim.5963
关键词
latency; distributed lag models; exposure-lag-response; delayed effects; splines
类别
资金
- Methodology Research fellowship by Medical Research Council-UK [G1002296]
- Medical Research Council [G1002296] Funding Source: researchfish
- MRC [G1002296] Funding Source: UKRI
In biomedical research, a health effect is frequently associated with protracted exposures of varying intensity sustained in the past. The main complexity of modeling and interpreting such phenomena lies in the additional temporal dimension needed to express the association, as the risk depends on both intensity and timing of past exposures. This type of dependency is defined here as exposure-lag-response association. In this contribution, I illustrate a general statistical framework for such associations, established through the extension of distributed lag non-linear models, originally developed in time series analysis. This modeling class is based on the definition of a cross-basis, obtained by the combination of two functions to flexibly model linear or nonlinear exposure-responses and the lag structure of the relationship, respectively. The methodology is illustrated with an example application to cohort data and validated through a simulation study. This modeling framework generalizes to various study designs and regression models, and can be applied to study the health effects of protracted exposures to environmental factors, drugs or carcinogenic agents, among others. (c) 2013 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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