期刊
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
卷 27, 期 16, 页码 2999-3016出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/sim.3136
关键词
basic reproductive number; serial interval; generation interval; infectious disease epidemic models
类别
资金
- NIAID NIH HHS [T32 AI007358] Funding Source: Medline
- NIBIB NIH HHS [R01 EB006195, R56 EB006195] Funding Source: Medline
We present a method for the simultaneous estimation of the basic reproductive number, R-0, and the serial interval for infectious disease epidemics, using readily available surveillance data. These estimates can be obtained in real time to inform an appropriate public health response to the outbreak. We show how this methodology, in its most simple case, is related to a branching process and describe similarities between the two that allow us to draw parallels which enable us to understand some of the theoretical properties of our estimators. We provide simulation results that illustrate the efficacy of the method for estimating R-0 and the serial interval in real time. Finally, we implement our proposed method with data from three infectious disease outbreaks. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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