4.5 Article

A statistical test for Nested Sampling algorithms

期刊

STATISTICS AND COMPUTING
卷 26, 期 1-2, 页码 383-392

出版社

SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11222-014-9512-y

关键词

Nested sampling; MCMC; Bayesian inference; Evidence; Test; Marginal likelihood

资金

  1. Max Planck Society

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Nested sampling is an iterative integration procedure that shrinks the prior volume towards higher likelihoods by removing a live point at a time. A replacement point is drawn uniformly from the prior above an ever-increasing likelihood threshold. Thus, the problem of drawing from a space above a certain likelihood value arises naturally in nested sampling, making algorithms that solve this problem a key ingredient to the nested sampling framework. If the drawn points are distributed uniformly, the removal of a point shrinks the volume in a well-understoodway, and the integration of nested sampling is unbiased. In this work, I develop a statistical test to check whether this is the case. This Shrinkage Test is useful to verify nested sampling algorithms in a controlled environment. I apply the shrinkage test to a test-problem, and show that some existing algorithms fail to pass it due to over-optimisation. I then demonstrate that a simple algorithm can be constructed which is robust against this type of problem. This RADFRIENDS algorithm is, however, inefficient in comparison to MULTINEST.

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