How can specific market demand for non-GM maize affect the profitability of Bt and conventional maize? A case study for the middle Ebro Valley, Spain

This article analyses the consequences that a specific new market for non-GM (genetically modified) compound feed would have on the relative profitability of Bt and conventional maize in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain). The study uses information obtained through a survey amongst maize farmers for the year 2009. This paper evaluates the current profitability of Bt maize relative to the profitability of conventional maize showing that at present the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize is 100%, mainly due the significantly higher yields of Bt maize. In addition the future of Bt maize is analysed in the event that a specific demand for non-GM maize for feed emerges. Simulations of price premium for conventional maize and their impact on the profitability of Bt maize in the region are described. To reduce to 50% the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize a price premium of (sic)17 ton(-1) for non-GM maize would be necessary.