Probability of occurrence of extreme magnetic storms

To calculate the probability of extreme magnetic storms in the solar cycle 24, cumulative distribution functions are investigated using an 89year list of magnetic storms recorded at Kakioka Magnetic Observatory. It is found that the probability of occurrence of extreme magnetic storms can be modeled as a function of maximum sunspot number of a solar cycle, and the probability of another Carrington storm occurring within the next decade is estimated to be 4-6%.