期刊
SOLAR ENERGY
卷 87, 期 -, 页码 136-149出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2012.10.012
关键词
Solar radiation forecasting; Time series method; Lucheroni model; Combination model; Fixed component; CARDS model
资金
- ARC [DP0987148, LP0884005]
- Australian Solar Institute
The trends of solar radiation are not easy to capture and become especially hard to predict when weather conditions change dramatically, such as with clouds blocking the sun. At present, the better performing methods to forecast solar radiation are time series methods, artificial neural networks and stochastic models. This paper will describe a new and efficient method capable of forecasting 1-h ahead solar radiation during cloudy days. The method combines an autoregressive (AR) model with a dynamical system model. In addition, the difference of solar radiation values at present and lag one time step is used as a correction to a predicted value, improving the forecasting accuracy by 30% compared to models without this correction. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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