期刊
SIMULATION MODELLING PRACTICE AND THEORY
卷 28, 期 -, 页码 27-41出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.simpat.2012.05.012
关键词
Air cargo; Demand forecast; Terminal capacity expansion; System dynamics; Scenario analysis
This paper establishes an approach to forecast air cargo demand related to terminal capacity expansion. To balance capacity and demand, it is required to forecast the future demand based on optimistic and pessimistic projections to decide when and how much, the airport should expand the capacity. System dynamics simulation model can provide reliable forecast and generate scenarios to test alternative assumptions and decisions. It was found that GDP and FDI play an important role in fostering the demand. Terminal expansion would be required in 2018 based on the optimistic projection; meanwhile, based on pessimistic projection, the capacity can meet demand in 2030, which means no need to increase the capacity. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据