期刊
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
卷 5, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/srep14462
关键词
-
资金
- National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) - Ministry of Education [2013R1A1A2011947]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2013R1A1A2011947] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
To understand the contact patterns of a population-who is in contact with whom, and when the contacts happen-is crucial for modeling outbreaks of infectious disease. Traditional theoretical epidemiology assumes that any individual can meet any with equal probability. A more modern approach, network epidemiology, assumes people are connected into a static network over which the disease spreads. Newer yet, temporal network epidemiology, includes the time in the contact representations. In this paper, we investigate the effect of these successive inclusions of more information. Using empirical proximity data, we study both outbreak sizes from unknown sources, and from known states of ongoing outbreaks. In the first case, there are large differences going from a fully mixed simulation to a network, and from a network to a temporal network. In the second case, differences are smaller. We interpret these observations in terms of the temporal network structure of the data sets. For example, a fast overturn of nodes and links seem to make the temporal information more important.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据