期刊
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
卷 409, 期 24, 页码 5228-5242出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.08.027
关键词
Climate change; DPSIR; Vulnerability; SDSM; TOPSIS
资金
- Research Center for Flood Defense Technology for the Next Generation in the Korean Institute of Construction & Transportation Technology Evaluation and Planning (KICTEP) of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTM) [08-Tech-Inovation-F01]
- National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF)
- Ministry of Education, Science and Technology [2010-0010609]
This study developed a new framework to quantify spatial vulnerability for sustainable water resources management. Four hydrologic vulnerability indices - potential flood damage (PFDC), potential drought damage (PDDC), potential water quality deterioration (PWQDC), and watershed evaluation index (WEIC) - were modified to quantify flood damage, drought damage, water quality deterioration, and overall watershed risk considering the impact of climate change, respectively. The concept of sustainability in the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was applied in selecting all appropriate indicators (criteria) of climate change impacts. In the examination of climate change, future meteorological data was obtained using CGCM3 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) and SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model), and future stream run-off and water quality were simulated using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran). The four modified indices were then calculated using TOPSIS, a multi-attribute method of decision analysis. As a result, the ranking obtained can be changed in consideration of climate change impacts. This study represents a new attempt to quantify hydrologic vulnerability in a manner that takes into account both climate change impacts and the concept of sustainability. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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