期刊
SCIENCE
卷 332, 期 6025, 页码 53-58出版社
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1200303
关键词
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资金
- QUEST
- NSF [0949308]
- UK Natural Environment Research Council
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
- Natural Environment Research Council [quest010001, cpb010001] Funding Source: researchfish
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [0949308] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- NERC [quest010001, cpb010001] Funding Source: UKRI
Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species' natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.
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