期刊
SCIENCE
卷 333, 期 6038, 页码 81-84出版社
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1205068
关键词
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资金
- Joint IED Defeat Organization [N70465]
- MITRE Corporation
- Santa Fe Institute
In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual provinces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and by terrorist groups operating worldwide, gives a potent indicator of the later pace of lethal activity.
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