期刊
SAFETY SCIENCE
卷 62, 期 -, 页码 427-440出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2013.10.002
关键词
Maritime transport; Bayesian Network; Fatigue; Human factors; Groundings
The article introduces a general method for developing a Bayesian Network (BN) for modeling the risk of maritime ship accidents. A BN of human fatigue in the bridge management team and the risk of ship grounding is proposed. The qualitative part of the BN has been structured based on modifying the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). The quantitative part is based upon correlation analysis of fatigue-related factors identified from 93 accident investigation reports. The BN model shows that fatigue has a significant effect on the probability of grounding. A fatigued operator raises the probability of grounding of a large ship in long transit with 23%. Compared to the two watch system (6-6 and 12-12), the 8-4-4-8 watch system seems to generate the least fatigue. However, when manning level, which is influenced by the various watch schemes, is taken into account, the two watch system is preferable, leading to less fatigue and fewer groundings. The strongest fatigue-related factors related to top management are vessel certifications, manning resources, and quality control. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据