期刊
SAFETY SCIENCE
卷 50, 期 8, 页码 1675-1684出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2011.12.019
关键词
Egress capability; Buildings; Ageing; Obesity; Monte Carlo simulation; Functional ability
The functional capability of building occupants to egress from buildings is likely to change as populations age and become less fit. A review of the current health literature suggests obesity can be used to determine the likely reduction in walking speed and also as a marker for other egress related factors such as the risk of falls. This paper examines the possible effects of gender, age and obesity and uses a Monte Carlo network evacuation model to examine whether these changes will significantly increase the total evacuation time from an exemplar high-rise building. Modelling results suggest that total evacuation times may increase by up to 20% when comparing historical data from Canada in 1971 with a future New Zealand scenario for 2031. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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