期刊
RISK ANALYSIS
卷 29, 期 5, 页码 648-661出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01195.x
关键词
Infection; maximum likelihood estimation; microbial risk assessment; survival analysis; time-dose response
类别
资金
- Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security
- U.S. EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR) [R83236201]
While microbial risk assessment (MRA) has been used for over 25 years, traditional dose-response analysis has only predicted the overall risk of adverse consequences from exposure to a given dose. An important issue for consequence assessment from bioterrorist and other microbiological exposure is the distribution of cases over time due to the initial exposure. In this study, the classical exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models were modified to include exponential-power dependency of time post inoculation (TPI) or its simplified form, exponential-reciprocal dependency of TPI, to quantify the time of onset of an effect presumably associated with the kinetics of in vivo bacterial growth. Using the maximum likelihood estimation approach, the resulting time-dose-response models were found capable of providing statistically acceptable fits to all tested pooled animal survival dose-response data. These new models can consequently describe the development of animal infectious response over time and represent observed responses fairly accurately. This is the first study showing that a time-dose-response model can be developed for describing infections initiated by various pathogens. It provides an advanced approach for future MRA frameworks.
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