Energy models for demand forecasting-A review

Energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation - be it social, economic or environment. In the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally. Energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security. Energy is linked to industrial production, agricultural output, health, access to water, population, education, quality of life, etc. Energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources. During the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs. In this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models. Traditional methods such as time series, regression, econometric, ARIMA as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic, genetic algorithm, and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management. Support vector regression, ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting. Bottom up models such as MARKAL and LEAP are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.