Predicting availability functions in time-dependent complex systems with SAEDES simulation algorithms

In this paper, we propose the use of discrete-event simulation (DES) as an efficient methodology to obtain estimates of both survival and availability functions in time-dependent real systems-such as telecommunication networks or distributed computer systems. We discuss the use of DES in reliability and availability studies, not only as an alternative to the use of analytical and probabilistic methods, but also as a complementary way to: (i) achieve a better understanding of the system internal behavior and (ii) find out the relevance of each component under reliability/availability considerations. Specifically, this paper describes a general methodology and two DES algorithms, called SAEDES, which can be used to analyze a wide range of time-dependent complex systems, including those presenting multiple states, dependencies among failure/repair times or non-perfect maintenance policies. These algorithms can provide valuable information, specially during the design stages, where different scenarios can be compared in order to select a system design offering adequate reliability and availability levels. Two case studies are discussed, using a C/C++ implementation of the SAEDES algorithms, to show some potential applications of our approach. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.