Flood frequency analysis of river Jhelum in Kashmir basin

This study aims to carry out the flood frequency analysis (FFA) of river Jhelum in Kashmir basin. Gumbel and Log-Pearson Type III (LP3) probability distributions were employed for simulating the future flood discharge scenarios using annual peak flow data (1956-2014) from three gauging stations of the River Jhelum. The predicted design floods of various return periods (Tr) i.e., 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 were obtained and compared. The findings reveal that the estimated discharge of all the return periods exceeds the current average carrying capacity (similar to 35000 cusecs in Srinagar) of the river. It is thus likely that any flood event with the return period of five years or above would overflow the banks of the River Jhelum. Furthermore, the present study demonstrates that the river discharge can be satisfactorily projected by any one of the used probability distribution methods; however, as revealed by the goodness-of-fit test, Log-Pearson Type III was found to be the better fitted probability distribution among the two.