期刊
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
卷 139, 期 671, 页码 298-313出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2078
关键词
coastal flooding; overtopping; extreme events; ensemble prediction; uncertainty; sea wall
资金
- Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) Programme of the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [NE/E0002129/1]
- University of Maine at Orono
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/E00217X/1, NE/E002129/1, NE/E00217X/2] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [NE/E00217X/1, NE/E002129/1, NE/E00217X/2] Funding Source: UKRI
This paper presents an integrated Clouds-to-Coast' ensemble modelling framework of coastal flood risk due to wave overtopping. The modelling framework consists of four key components: meteorological forecasts, wavetidesurge predictions, nearshore wave models and surf zone models. This type of ensemble prediction approach allows us to estimate the probabilities of various outcomes and so improve our understanding of the reliability of results. It also provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with predictions, which can be particularly large for extreme storms, and allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological forecasts to overtopping and subsequent coastal flood risk predictions. Copyright (c) 2013 Royal Meteorological Society
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