期刊
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
卷 139, 期 670, 页码 176-183出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/qj.1961
关键词
seasonal prediction; regression; hindcasts
资金
- National Science Foundation [ATM0332910, ATM0830062, ATM0830068]
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NNG04GG46G, NNX09AN50G]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NA04OAR4310034, NA09OAR4310058, NA05OAR4311004, NA10OAR4310210, NA10OAR4310249]
This article proposes a statistical test for whether a multi-model combination with unequal weights has significantly smaller errors than a combination with equal weights. A combination with equal weights includes the case of a no-skill model, in which all weights equal zero, and the multi-model mean, in which all weights equal 1/M, where M is the number of models. The test is applied to seasonal hindcasts of 2 m temperature and precipitation generated by five state-of-the-art coupled atmosphereocean models. The hypothesis of equal weights could not be rejected over 75% the globe for temperature and 90% of the land for precipitation, implying that strategies for unequal weighting of forecasts may be of value only over a relatively small fraction of the globe. The fact that the test does not require pre-specifying a specific strategy for weighting forecasts suggests that it should be useful for exploring a wide range of multi-model strategies. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据