Going for gold! Welfare characteristics and Olympic success: an application of the structural equation approach.

Winning medals at the Olympic Games has become an objective that countries worldwide want to achieve. In line with research devoted to the predictors of success, the present article examines the connection between certain welfare characteristics (political, social, and economic development) and the probability of success in the 1984 and 2004 Olympics. We expected to find that structural macro conditions still predict Olympic success. Using welfare indicators as formative instead of reflective indicators (Bollen, Qual Quant 183: 77-85, 1984, p. 65), the results of our Structural Equation Model reveal that both economic and social development had an effect in 1984, as well as in 2004. Political development was only significant in 1984. As for the control variables, population size was significant in both 1984 and 2004. Sporting tradition and geographical conditions had no effect at all. The model fit is very good with a chi-square of 6.62 with 5 degrees of freedom (p = 0.25).