Accurate prediction of protein folding rates from sequence and sequence-derived residue flexibility and solvent accessibility

Protein folding rates vary by several orders of magnitude and they depend on the topology of the fold and the size and composition of the sequence. Although recent works show that the rates can be predicted from the sequence, allowing for high-throughput annotations, they consider only the sequence and its predicted secondary structure. We propose a novel sequence-based predictor, PFR-AF, which utilizes solvent accessibility and residue flexibility predicted from the sequence, to improve predictions and provide insights into the folding process. The predictor includes three linear regressions for proteins with two-state, multistate, and unknown (mixed-state) folding kinetics. PFR-AF on average outperforms current methods when tested on three datasets. The proposed approach provides high-quality predictions in the absence of similarity between the predicted and the training sequences. The PFR-AF's predictions are characterized by high (between 0.71 and 0.95, depending on the dataset) correlation and the lowest (between 0.75 and 0.9) mean absolute errors with respect to the experimental rates, as measured using out-of-sample tests. Our models reveal that for the two-state chains inclusion of solvent-exposed Ala may accelerate the folding, while increased content of Ile may reduce the folding speed. We also demonstrate that increased flexibility of coils facilitates faster folding and that proteins with larger content of solvent-exposed strands may fold at a slower pace. The increased flexibility of the solvent-exposed residues is shown to elongate folding, which also holds, with a lower correlation, for buried residues. Two case studies are included to support our findings.