Learning curve analysis of concentrated photovoltaic systems

Price declines and volume growth of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are analysed using the learning curve methodology and compared with other forms of solar electricity generation. Logarithmic regression analysis determines a learning rate of 18% for CPV systems with 90% confidence of that rate being between 14 and 22%, which is higher than the learning rates of other solar generation systems (11% for CSP and 12 to 14% for PV). Current CPV system prices are competitive with PV and CSP, which, when combined with the higher learning rate, indicates that CPV is likely to further improve its marketability. A target price of 1 $/W in 2020 could be achieved with a compound growth rate of 67% for the total deployed volume between 2014 and 2020, which would realize a cumulative deployed volume of 7900MW. Other projections of deployment volumes from commercial sources are converted using the learning rate into future price scenarios, resulting in predicted prices in the range of 1.1 to 1.3 $/W in 2020. (c) 2014 The Authors. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.