期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 6, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7869
关键词
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资金
- Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, through the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change
- NSF [1049219]
- NOAA
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1049238, 1305719] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1406601, 1049219] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [26247079] Funding Source: KAKEN
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.
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