期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
卷 279, 期 1735, 页码 2072-2080出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2011.2367
关键词
climate change; competition; dispersal; community ecology; movement ecology; thermal performance breadth
资金
- NCEAS
- NESCent
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [1119887] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along awarming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called 'no-analogue' communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e. g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences.
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