期刊
出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2014.0349
关键词
age dating; Bayesian inference; energy balance model; inverse problem; mechanistic-statistical model; memory effects
资金
- US National Science Foundation [DMS-1049253]
- French 'Agence Nationale de la Recherche' within project PREFERED
- French 'Agence Nationale de la Recherche' within project URTICLIM
We study parameter estimation for one-dimensional energy balance models with memory (EBMMs) given localized and noisy temperature measurements. Our results apply to a wide range of nonlinear, parabolic partial differential equations with integral memory terms. First, we show that a space-dependent parameter can be determined uniquely everywhere in the PDE's domain of definition D, using only temperature information in a small subdomain epsilon subset of D. This result is valid only when the data correspond to exact measurements of the temperature. We propose a method for estimating a model parameter of the EBMM using more realistic, error-contaminated temperature data derived, for example, from ice cores or marine-sediment cores. Our approach is based on a so-called mechanistic-statistical model that combines a deterministic EBMM with a statistical model of the observation process. Estimating a parameter in this setting is especially challenging, because the observation process induces a strong loss of information. Aside from the noise contained in past temperature measurements, an additional error is induced by the age-dating method, whose accuracy tends to decrease with a sample's remoteness in time. Using a Bayesian approach, we show that obtaining an accurate parameter estimate is still possible in certain cases.
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