期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 115, 期 33, 页码 8252-8259出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115
关键词
Earth System trajectories; climate change; Anthropocene; biosphere feedbacks; tipping elements
资金
- Stordalen Foundation
- Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award
- European Union Framework Programme 7 Project HELIX
- Erling-Persson Family Foundation
- Haury Program in Environment and Social Justice
- National Science Foundation (USA) Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models Grant [1243125]
- Swedish Research Council Formas Grant [2012-742]
- Leibniz Association Project DOMINOES
- Formas Grant [2014-589]
- European Research Council Advanced Grant 2016, Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene Project [743080]
- European Research Council (ERC) [743080] Funding Source: European Research Council (ERC)
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a Hothouse Earth pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
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