期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 111, 期 9, 页码 3239-3244出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222474110
关键词
adaptation; agriculture; hydrology; uncertainty
资金
- German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) [01LS1201A]
- National Science Foundation (NSF) [SBE-0951576, GEO-1215910]
- European Union [266992]
- Argonne National Laboratory [S10 RR029030-01]
- NSF [OCI-1148443]
- Science, Technology, and Society Priority Group from the University of Nottingham
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [S-10]
- 973 Program of China [2012CB955403]
- Formas Strong Research Environment
- Federal Ministry for the Environment Grant [11 II 093]
- LDC
- Direct For Computer & Info Scie & Enginr
- Division Of Computer and Network Systems [1215910] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 4001,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
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