期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 110, 期 50, 页码 20018-20022出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1314392110
关键词
climate change policy; geostatistical inverse modeling
资金
- American Meteorological Society Graduate Student Fellowship/Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program, a DOE Computational Science Graduate Fellowship
- National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program
- Atmospheric Composition and Climate Program of NOAA's Climate Program Office
- Carbon Cycle Program of NOAA's Climate Program Office
- NASA [NNX08AR47G, NNX11AG47G]
- NOAA [NA09OAR4310122, NA11OAR4310158]
- National Science Foundaton (NSF) [ATM-0628575]
- Environmental Defense Fund [0146-10100]
- California Energy Commission Public Interest Environmental Research Program through US Department of Energy [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
- Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
- Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy as part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM)
- Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy as part of ARM Aerial Facility
- Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy as part of Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Program
- NSF [ATM-0836153]
- NASA
- NOAA
- US intelligence community
This study quantitatively estimates the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Results show that current inventories from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research underestimate methane emissions nationally by a factor of similar to 1.5 and similar to 1.7, respectively. Our study indicates that emissions due to ruminants and manure are up to twice the magnitude of existing inventories. In addition, the discrepancy in methane source estimates is particularly pronounced in the south-central United States, where we find total emissions are similar to 2.7 times greater than in most inventories and account for 24 +/- 3% of national emissions. The spatial patterns of our emission fluxes and observed methane-propane correlations indicate that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 +/- 13%) in the south-central United States. This result suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 +/- 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory. These results cast doubt on the US EPA's recent decision to downscale its estimate of national natural gas emissions by 25-30%. Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.
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