Advances in operational flood forecasting in Scotland

In recent years, significant investment has been made in the operational flood forecasting capabilities of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa) through the continued development of its flood early warning system (Fews Scotland). Under the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009, Sepa's current flood forecasting and warning responsibilities have now been formalised and strengthened, giving Sepa a statutory basis for all flood warning activities. Sepa is now committed to developing its flood forecasting capabilities in response to this legislative driver. This paper presents key flood forecasting initiatives commissioned by Sepa to meet this strategic need. These include an initiative to develop a joint hydrometeorological flood forecasting service in Scotland supported by a national distributed hydrological model for Scotland, the first operational implementation of a Delft3D-Flow model for coastal forecasting within the Delft-Fews environment on the Firth of Clyde, and a step-change in forecasting capabilities through rapid development of rainfall-runoff, routing and hydrodynamic modelling. These significant improvements enable delivery of an effective flood warning service that aims to reduce the impact of flooding from all sources.