期刊
POPULATION ECOLOGY
卷 51, 期 1, 页码 123-132出版社
SPRINGER TOKYO
DOI: 10.1007/s10144-008-0095-3
关键词
Gompertz model; Kalman filter; Large carnivores; Local environmental variability; Predation; Spatial heterogeneity
类别
资金
- Large Mammalian Herbivore Dynamics Working Group
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
- United States National Science Foundation [DEB-9421535, DEB 0119618, DEB 0444711]
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- State of California
Variation in the abundance of animals has traditionally been explained as the outcome of endogenous forcing from density dependence and exogenous forcing arising from variation in weather and predation. Emerging evidence suggests that the effects of density dependence interact with external influences on population dynamics. In particular, spatial heterogeneity in resources and the presence of capable predators may weaken feedbacks from density dependence to growth of populations. We used the Kalman filter to analyze 23 time series of estimates of abundance of northern ungulate populations arrayed along a latitudinal gradient (latitude range of 40A degrees-70A degrees N) to evaluate the influence of spatial heterogeneity in resources and predation on density dependence. We also used contingency tables to test whether density dependence was independent of the presence of carnivores (our estimate of predation) and multiple regressions to determine the effects of spatial heterogeneity in resources, predation, and latitude on the strength of density dependence. Our results showed that the strength of density dependence of ungulate populations was low in the presence of large carnivores, particularly at northern latitudes with low primary productivity. We found that heterogeneity in elevation, which we assume acted as a surrogate for spatial heterogeneity in plant phenology, also reduced effects of density dependence. Thus, we show that external forces created by heterogeneity in resources and predation interact with internal feedbacks from population density to shape dynamics of populations of northern ungulates.
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