Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) survival rates and their relationship to environmental indices in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

Seabird life history is typified by low fecundity, high adult survival rates, and relatively long lives. Such traits act as buffers, enabling persistence of populations under variable environmental conditions. Numerous studies, however, have suggested strong sensitivity of seabirds to environmental variability. In the Antarctic Peninsula region, for example, Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) populations have declined during the last three decades, attributed largely to rapid changes in environmental conditions and food availability. We use 30 years of markrecapture data from known-age individuals in the South Shetland Islands and capture-mark-recapture models to estimate survival rates with respect to such environmental variation. We investigated specifically whether negative trends in survival rates were evident and whether indices of global, regional, and local environmental conditions considered important for Adelie penguin survival explained the variability in survival rates. Overall, negative trends in juvenile survival were evident, but adult survival rates exhibited high interannual variability. Indices of sea ice extent had the strongest correlations with survival rates, particularly Weddell Sea ice extent during spring among adults (r = 0.62) and during winter for juveniles (r = 0.46). An analysis of deviance, however, suggested that single environmental covariates explained <30 % of the observed variation in the full mark-recapture models. Despite positive effects of sea ice extent on survival rates of Adelie penguins, limited explanatory power of several environmental conditions previously identified as important for Adelie penguin survival underscores the difficulty of predicting future population responses in this region of rapid environmental change.