Noninvasive scoring systems predict hepatic and extra-hepatic cancers in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Background Liver fibrosis predicts liver-related morbidity and mortality in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Non-invasive scores correlate with the degree of liver fibrosis in these patients. Aims and methods To investigate the accuracy of noninvasive scoring systems in predicting long-term outcomes and cancer incidence of patients with NAFLD, we performed a single-center retrospective study of patients with biopsy proven NAFLD. Mean follow up period was 100 months. Outcomes included liver-related complications, hospitalizations, overall mortality and the development of any malignancies. Results 32 patients had advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) per biopsy at baseline and 121 patients had mild to moderate fibrosis (F0-F2). Both advanced histologic fibrosis stage as well as higher noninvasive scores predicted repeated hospitalizations and longer hospitalization stays. In a multivariate analysis, liver fibrosis (p = 0.002), FIB-4 score (p<0.001), NFS (p<0.001) but not APRI score (p = 0.07) were predictors of overall mortality, and the occurrence of malignancies was associated with higher APRI (p<0.001), FIB-4 (p<0.001) and NFS (p = 0.008) scores, but not with advanced fibrosis, as determined by liver biopsy (p = 0.105). Conclusions In NAFLD patients, noninvasive scoring systems are good predictors of morbidity and mortality and may have an additive value in predicting the development of hepatic and extrahepatic cancers.