Modelling the Distribution of Forest-Dependent Species in Human-Dominated Landscapes: Patterns for the Pine Marten in Intensively Cultivated Lowlands

In recent years, the forest-specialist pine marten Martes martes has been reported to also occur also in largely fragmented, lowland landscapes of north-western Italy. The colonization of such an apparently unsuitable area provided the opportunity for investigating pine marten ecological requirements and predicting its potential south-and eastwards expansion. We collected available pine marten occurrence data in the flood plain of the River Po (N Italy) and relate them to 11 environmental variables by developing nine Species Distribution Models. To account for inter-model variability we used average ensemble predictions (EP). EP predicted a total of 482 suitable patches (8.31% of the total study area) for the pine marten. The main factors driving pine marten occurrence in the western River Po plain were the distance from watercourses and the distance from woods. EP suggested that the pine marten may further expand in the western lowland, whilst the negligible residual wood cover of large areas in the central and eastern plain makes the habitat unsuitable for the pine marten, except for some riparian corridors and the pine wood patches bordering the Adriatic coast. Based on our results, conservation strategies should seek to preserve remnant forest patches and enhance the functional connectivity provided by riparian corridors.